The Week Ahead: Highlights

Asia-Pacific Preview

Waiting for the RBA Rate Move

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

The Reserve Bank of Australias policy meeting is the major focus in the Asia-Pacific region in the week ahead. Officials raised policy rates for the fourth time this year at their last meeting in late-September, judging that "some of the upside risks to inflation are materialising" and expressing their concern that inflation "is still too high". They also stressed that they will do what they consider necessary to deliver price stability and full employment, implying that they are ready to increase rates again if inflationary pressures do not start to moderate soon. The Econoday consensus looks for the RBA to raise rates by 25 basis points.

Inflation data published this week showed underlying measures of inflation were steady in September, with the trimmed mean measure up slightly from 3.5 percent to 3.6 percent and the weighted median measure falling from 3.6 percent to 3.4 percent. Headline inflation, however, rose from 4.0 percent in August to 4.3 percent in September, further above the target range of two percent to three percent. That may be enough to prompt another rate hike next week. Monthly household spending and trade data for September will be published after the RBA meeting.

Monthly PMI surveys for the region will also be watched closely. September surveys again showed the impact of both the Iran conflict and ongoing strength in AI-related demand. The influence of both factors on activity, sentiment and cost pressures across the region will likely remain evident in the October surveys.

South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand will all publish inflation data in the week ahead. The central banks for all three countries left policy rates on hold at their most recent meetings, but officials at the Bank of Korea have expressed concern about the inflation outlook in recent months and have indicated that policy tightening will be considered in upcoming meetings. South Koreas headline inflation moderated from 3.1 percent in August to 2.9 percent in September, but remained well above the two percent target. New Zealand will also publish quarterly labour market data in the week ahead.

US Preview

Nonfarm Payrolls, Job Openings Reports in Focus

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist

The November 2 week includes several reports covering the labor market. The most important is the October employment situation at 8:30 ET on Friday.

Early forecasts for the change in nonfarm payrolls center around an increase of about 50,000. This is a temperate gain that would be enough to support the current how hire, low fire balance in the labor market. There is a five-week survey reference period between the September and October surveys which means that this report should capture a good snapshot of hiring in this month. October can be affected by seasonal hiring for sectors like retail and delivery services in advance of the winter holidays. This year many businesses reduced their hiring plans, in part from a limited labor supply and in part about concerns for consumer spending when inflation is eating up more discretionary income for moderate and lower income households.

Also getting close scrutiny will be the September data on job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) on Tuesday at 10:00 ET. Although these numbers lag the upcoming employment data, it will provide a sense if the job market is providing opportunities or if the number of jobs open is contracting and/or if hiring continues but at a sluggish pace. Jobs open and new hires have tended to be a few narrow sectors in recent months, most notably healthcare. If that doesnt change in September, the labor market remains good, but only for certain skilled workers.

This week and for the next few months it will be time to watch for distortions in seasonal adjustment factors in the economic data. The 43-day federal government shutdown of October 1 to November 12, 2025, will mean that data for October and November of this year may follow normal behavior in comparison. In some instances, there will be no data with which to make a comparison. It will probably be necessary to look at indicator performance for October and November as a unit to gauge what the present reports are saying about the economy.

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

China PMI Manufacturing for October (Mon 0945 CST; Mon 0145 GMT; Sun 2045 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 52.0

Consensus Range, Index: 51.7 to 52.2

A flat showing is expected with the index at 52.0 in October versus 52.1 in September. That would suggest very modest continuing expansion in business activity.

Germany Retail Sales for September (Mon 0800 CET; Mon 0700 GMT; Mon 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, M/M: -1.0% to 0.8%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -0.2%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -0.8% to 0.2%

Sales expected up again on the month by 0.5 percent in September after a big 1.3 percent jump in August. On year, the consensus looks for a 0.2 percent decline in September after minus 0.4 percent in August.

France PMI Manufacturing Final for October (Mon 0850 CET; Mon 0750 GMT; Mon 0250 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 49.3

Consensus Range, Index: 49.3 to 49.3

The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash at 49.3 for October, which suggests marginal contraction in business activity. That is down from 50.6 in September and illustrates how France is lagging Germany where the expansion is picking up a bit of speed.

Germany PMI Manufacturing Final for October (Mon 0955 CET; Mon 0855 GMT; Mon 0355 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 54.2

Consensus Range, Index: 54.2 to 54.2

The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash at 54.2 for October, which suggests moderate growth in business activity, up slightly from 53.9 in September, despite elevated input prices.

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Final October (Mon 1000 CET; Mon 0900 GMT; Mon 0400 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 52.4

Consensus Range, Index: 52.4 to 52.4

The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash at 52.4 for October, which suggests modest growth in business activity, off slightly from 52.9 in September.

UK PMI Manufacturing Final for October (Mon 0930 GMT; Mon 0430 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 52.8

Consensus Range, Index: 52.8 to 52.8

The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash at 52.8 for October, up slightly from 51.9 in September.

US PMI Manufacturing Final for October (Mon 0945 EST; Mon 1445 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 56.0

Consensus Range, Index: 56.0 to 56.0

As usual, forecasters see no revision in the October final from the flash at 56.0. That is nearly flat from 55.9 in September. These numbers indicate robust expansion in the face of surging price pressures.

US ISM Manufacturing Index for October (Mon 1000 EST; Mon 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 54.5

Consensus Range, Index: 53.9 to 55.0

The consensus sees the index unchanged at 54.5 in October from 54.5 in September and from 54.6 in August, a remarkable run of steady moderate expansion even with prices paid at elevated levels and going high and higher.

US Construction Spending for October (Mon 1000 EST; Mon 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.1% to 0.6%

Construction spending expected up 0.5 percent, a big increase for one month. That reflects the explosion in data center construction.

Tuesday

South Korea CPI for October (Tue 0800 KST; Mon 2300 GMT; Mon 1800 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.3% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.9%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.8% to 2.9%

Forecasters see CPI up 0.3 percent on the month and 2.9 percent on year in October, same as in September.

Australia RBA Announcement (Tue 1430 AET; Tue 0330 GMT; Mon 2230 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 25 bp

Consensus Range, Change: 25 bp to 25 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 4.85%

Consensus Range, Level: 4.85% to 4.85%

Comments from RBA officials and recent above-target inflation data signal the bank will raise rates again by 25 basis points.

US Motor Vehicle Sales for October (Any Time)

Consensus Forecast, Total Vehicle Sales - Annual Rate: 15.9 M

Consensus Range, Total Vehicle Sales - Annual Rate: 15.7 M to 16.0 M

Auto sales expected at a 15.9 million unit rate in October compared with 16.0 million in September.

US Factory Orders for September (Tue 1000 EST; Tue 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 1.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: 1.1% to 2.6%

Higher than expected 1.8 percent increase in durable goods orders already published for September augurs for similar 1.2 percent rise in wider factory orders including nondurables.

US JOLTS for September (Tue 1000 EST; Tue 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Job Openings: 7.134 M

Consensus Range, Job Openings: 7.060 M to 7.225 M

Openings expected up slightly to 7.134 million in September from 7.079 million in August.

Wednesday

New Zealand Labour Market Conditions for Third Quarter (Wed 1045 NZDT; Tue 2145 GMT; Tue 1645 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.5%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.4% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.6%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.6% to 1.6%

Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 5.5%

Consensus Range, Unemployment Rate: 5.5% to 5.6%

The jobless rate is expected lower at 5.5 percent from 5.6 percent in the previous quarter as job growth has picked up enough to reduce unemployment sightly.

Australia Household Spending for March (Wed1130 AET; Wed 0030 GMT; Tue 1930 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.5% to 0.2%

Soft auto sales expected to weigh on overall household spending.

China PMI Composite for October (Wed 0945 CST; Wed 0145 GMT; Tue 2045 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 51.7

Consensus Range, Services Index: 51.4 to 51.7

Services index expected nearly unchanged at 51.7 in October from 51.6 in September.

Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision for November (Wed 0930 CET; Wed 0830 GMT; Wed 0330 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 25 bp

Consensus Range, Change: 25 bp to 25 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 2.0%

Consensus Range, Level: 2.0% to 2.0%

Hawkish comments from officials signal a rate hike at this meeting and guidance for another rate increase by February. That is despite better behaved inflation figures lately and a stronger currency.

France PMI Composite Final for October (Wed 0950 CET; Wed 0850 GMT; Wed 0350 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 48.4

Consensus Range, Services Index: 48.4 to 48.4

The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash at 48.4 for services, showing contraction in October after tiny expansion at 51.2 in September.

Germany PMI Composite Final for October (Wed 0955 CET; Wed 0855 GMT; Wed 0355 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 52.8

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 52.8 to 52.8

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 51.7

Consensus Range, Services Index: 51.7 to 51.7

The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash at 52.8 for the composite and 51.7 for services for October.

Eurozone PMI Composite Final for October (Wed 1000 CET; Wed 0900 GMT; Wed 0400 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 51.9

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 51.9 to 51.9

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 51.7

Consensus Range, Services Index: 51.7 to 51.7

The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash at 51.9 for the composite and 51.7 for services for October. That is down from 53.1 and 53.0, respectively, in September.

UK PMI Composite Final for October (Wed 0930 GMT; Wed 0430 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 53.1

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 53.1 to 53.1

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 53.1

Consensus Range, Services Index: 53.1 to 53.1

The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash at 53.1 for both composite and services. That is up from 52.0 and 52.1, respectively, in September. UK indicators have been creeping up.

Eurozone HICP for October (Wed 1100 CEST; Wed 1000 GMT; Wed 0500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 3.9%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 3.8% to 4.2%

Consensus Forecast, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.5%

Consensus Range, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.4% to 2.6%

Narrow core expected unchanged at 2.5 percent for October from September. The total is seen higher at 3.9 percent versus 3.8 percent in September as energy and commodity price increases kick in.

US ADP Employment Report for October (Wed 0815 EST; Wed 1315 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Private Payrolls - M/M: 70K

Consensus Range, Private Payrolls - M/M: 65K to 80K

Private jobs seen up 70K in October after 90K in September.

Canada Merchandise Trade for September (Wed 0830 EST; Wed 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: C$4.1 B

Consensus Range, Balance: C$3.5 B to C$6.3 B

The trade balance seen in surplus by a big C$4.1 billion in September after C$4.2 billion in August with export values lifted by energy price increases.

US International Trade in Goods and Services for September (Wed 0830 EST; Wed 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: -$107.9 B

Consensus Range, Balance: - $115.6 B to -$103.7 B

The gap is seen wider at a remarkable $107.9 billion in September from $105.6 billion in August as AI buildout equipment flows in from Asia.

US ISM Services Index for October (Wed 0945 EST; Wed 1445 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 54.7

Consensus Range, Services Index: 54.0 to 56.3

Another stable reading at 54.7 is the call, almost flat from 54.9 in September, as steady growth continues.

Thursday

Brazil Selic Rate for November (Thu 0630 BRT; Thu 0930 GMT; Thu 0430 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 13.75%

Consensus Range, Level: 13.75% to 13.75%

After a rate cut last time, the Copom is expected on hold.

Australia International Trade in Goods for September (Thu 1130 AET; Thu 0030 GMT; Wed 1930 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: A$1.0 B

Consensus Range, Balance: -A$1.0 B to A$2.5 B

Trade balance seen at a $1.0 billion.

Norway Norges Bank Rate Decision (Thu 0800 CET; Thu 0700 GMT; Thu 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 4.50%

Consensus Range, Level: 4.50% to 4.50%

The Norges bank is seen on hold and officials are expected to express uncertainty over underlying inflation.

Sweden CPI Flash for October (Thu 0800 CET; Thu 0700 GMT; Thu 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.3% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.2% to 1.4%

Germany Manufacturing Orders for September (Thu 0800 CET; Thu 0700 GMT; Thu 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 5.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: 3.0% to 6.0%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 4.3%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.3% to 4.3%

Orders are expected to rebound by 5.0 percent on the month after dropping 10.6 percent in August.

France Industrial Production for September (Thu 0845 CET; Thu 0745 GMT; Thu 0245 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.2% to 0.5%

Output expected back up 0.5 percent on the month in September after declining by 0.3 percent in August.

UK BoE Announcement and Minutes (Thu 1200 GMT; Thu 0700 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Bank Rate - Change: 25 bps

Consensus Range, Bank Rate - Change: 25 bps to 25 bps

Consensus Forecast, Bank Rate - Level: 4.0

Consensus Range, Bank Rate - Level: 4.0 to 4.0

The BOE is uniformly expected to go 25 bps in response to rising energy costs even though second-round effects are hard to find. The big question is what the bank says will happen next.

US Jobless Claims for Week of October 31 (Thu 0830 EST; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 196K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 195 K to 200 K

Claims seen at 196K in latest week after 194K last week, fairly stable at very low levels.

US Productivity and Costs for Third Quarter (Thu 0830 EST; Thu 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate: 3.0%

Consensus Range, Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate: 1.1% to 3.8%

Consensus Forecast, Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate: 1.1%

Consensus Range, Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate: -0.1% to 1.5%

Productivity seen up at a respectable 3.0 percent annual rate in Q3 after 1.4 percent in Q2. ULC expected at 1.1 percent on year.

Friday

Germany Industrial Production for September (Fri 0800 CET; Fri 0700 GMT; Fri 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, M/M: -1.0 to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.9%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.8% to 2.0%

The consensus sees industrial output up 0.5 percent on the month and 1.9 percent on year in September.

Eurozone Retail Sales for September (Fri 1100 CET; Fri 1000 GMT; Fri 0500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.4% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 0.6%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 0.4% to 1.2%

The consensus sees another sluggish retail sales report with no change in September from August and sales up only 0.6 percent from a year ago.

Canada Labour Force Survey for October (Fri 0830 EST; Fri 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Employment - M/M: 12 K

Consensus Range, Employment - M/M: 10K to 35K

Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 6.5%

Consensus Range, Unemployment Rate: 6.4% to 6.5%

A modest 12.2K increase is the call for employment with unemployment rate flat at 6.5 percent in October from September, up from 6.4 percent in August.

US Employment Situation for October (Fri 0830 EST; Fri 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M: 62K

Consensus Range, Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M: 40K to 100K

Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 4.2%

Consensus Range, Unemployment Rate: 4.2% to 4.3%

Consensus Forecast, Private Payrolls - M/M: 64K

Consensus Range, Private Payrolls - M/M: 35K to 65K

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M: 0K

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M: -2K to 12K

Consensus Forecast, Average Hourly Earnings - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Average Hourly Earnings - M/M: 0.2% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 2.9%

Consensus Range, Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 2.9% to 3.0%

Jobs seen up a moderate 62K and the jobless rate flat at 4.2 percent in October.

US Consumer Sentiment for November (Fri 1000 EST; Fri 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 47.5

Consensus Range, Index: 45.7 to 50.0

The first reading for November is expected to erode to 47.5 from 48.0 in October final and 48.1 in September and versus 51.0 in November 2025. Sentiment remains depressed by inflation concerns.

US Consumer Credit for September (Fri 1500 EST; Fri 2000 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: $ 11.5 B

Consensus Range, M/M: $5.0 B to $12.0 B

A plain vanilla monthly increase of $11.5 billion is the call for consumer credit outstanding in September from August.