The Week Ahead: Highlights

Asia-Pacific Preview

Busy Data Week Ahead; RBA Expected to Leave Rates Unchanged

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

The Reserve Bank of Australias policy meeting is the major focus in the Asia-Pacific region. Officials left rates on hold at their last meeting in mid-June, judging that three rate increases delivered earlier in the year should act to reduce capacity pressures and help bring inflation back to the target range of two percent to three percent. That decision was unanimous but officials again stressed that they are ready to consider further policy tightening if price pressures do not ease.

CPI data released since that meeting, however, have likely eased officials concerns about the immediate inflation outlook. Although core measures are little changed over the last two months, headline inflation fell from 4.2 percent in April to 4.0 percent in May and 3.8 percent in June, largely reflecting a waning impact of the Iran conflict on fuel prices. Australias housing market has also shown signs of slowing and this may be enough for officials to be confident that previous policy tightening is having the intended effect. Officials will also publish updated growth and inflation forecast next week, providing an updated assessment of how they see the impact of factors such as the Iran conflict and previous rate hikes.

Indian inflation data will also be watched after the Reserve Bank of India left rates on hold earlier in the month. Officials noted then that they saw little evidence that higher food and fuel prices will boost broader price pressures, revising down their forecasts for annual headline and core inflation from 5.1 percent and 4.7 percent to 5.0 percent and 4.3 percent respectively. They also argued, however, that they need more clarity about the inflation outlook before they would consider taking further policy action. Both consumer and wholesale price data will be released next week.

Elsewhere in the region, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan will all publish GDP data for the three months to June, with both the Iran conflict and strong AI-demand likely to impact the data. The NAB survey of Australian business confidence will also be published just prior to the RBA policy decision.

US Preview

CPI, PPI To Show Energy Price Impact

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist

The economic data in the August 10 week is going to reflect the volatility in energy prices particularly for motor fuels and the ongoing impact of the war on Iran.

The July consumer price index (CPI) is at 8:30 ET on Wednesday and the final-demand producer price index (PPI) is at 8:30 ET on Thursday. Although gasoline prices remain lower than the near-term peak of $4.452 per gallon of regular gas in the May 4 week, prices started to rise again from the near-term bottom of $3.777 percent gallon in the July 6 week. The EIA monthly average for a gallon of gasoline in July was $3.932, still lower than the $4.050 in June, but moving in the wrong direction.

The upward trend in July and early August will not be fully reflected in the CPI and PPI data. It will be more visible at the consumer level as that report takes its readings later in the month than the PPI report. Consumer prices will also see some of the pass-through from earlier higher costs for things like transportation services that make goods more costly at the retail level. Producers may continue to see some upward price pressures as well as prior cost increases at the intermediate level find their way into final products.

Short-term fuel price increases can sometimes have less effect if it is a quick spike higher that rapidly abates. However, fuel prices have yet to return to pre-Iran attack levels and this will be harder for producers to not pass on to other businesses and consumers. A month or two of less upward price pressure for commodities and services does not mean that current prices are coming down.

The report on retail and food services sales in July is at 8:30 ET on Friday. The June report finished the second quarter on a low note, but this next data could raise hopes for stronger third quarter spending. However, the numbers should be read with caution. Some consumer spending may have been moved forward a bit out of inflation fears and in anticipation of slowing along the supply chain. Retailers were heavily discounting early in the month to move merchandise associated with the Independence Day celebrations and reduce summer items on the shelves in preparation for back-to-school shopping in late July and early August. Costs of food at home were higher. Summer travel was generally more costly at restaurants and lodging. Spending on gasoline will be up, but from cost as well as volume.

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

China CPI for July (Mon 0930 CST; Mon 0130 GMT; Sun 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 0.8%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 0.8% to 0.9%

CPI inflation expected to fade to an increase of 0.8 percent on year in July from 1.0 percent in June, suggesting lack of economic impetus and excess supply.

China PPI for July (Mon 0930 CST; Mon 0130 GMT; Sun 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.9%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.8% to 4.3%

As with CPI, producer price inflation is expected to slow to 3.9 percent on year in July from 4.1 percent in June.

Tuesday

Australia RBA Announcement (Tue 1430 AEST; Tue 0430 GMT; Tue 1230 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 4.35%

Consensus Range, Level: 4.35% to 4.35%

Inflation appears subdued enough lately to allow the RBA to keep rates where they are after three increases earlier in the year.

US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July (Tue 0600 EDT; Tue 1000 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 97.3

Consensus Range, Index: 96.8 to 98.5

The consensus sees sentiment a bit weaker at 97.2 in July versus 97.4 in June.

US Existing Home Sales for July (Tue 1000 EDT; Tue 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Annual Rate: 4.05 M

Consensus Range, Annual Rate: 3.99 M to 4.12 M

Forecasters expect home sales lower at a depressed 4.05 million unit rate in July versus 4.09 million in June.

Wednesday

Germany CPI for July (Wed 0800 CEST; Wed 0600 GMT; Wed 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.8%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.8% to 0.8%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.8%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.8% to 2.8%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - M/M: 0.9%

Consensus Range, HICP - M/M: 0.9% to 0.9%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 2.8%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 2.8% to 2.8%

The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash with CPI up 0.8 percent on the month and 2.8 percent on year.

Italy CPI for July (Wed 1000 CEST; Wed 0800 GMT; Wed 0400 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.2% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.8%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.8% to 2.8%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - M/M: -1.0%

Consensus Range, HICP - M/M: -1.0% to -1.0%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 2.9%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 2.9% to 2.9%

The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash with CPI up 0.2 percent on the month and 2.8 percent on year.

India CPI for July (Wed 1600 IST; Wed 1030 GMT; Wed 0630 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 4.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 4.4% to 4.5%

Forecasters expect CPI up 4.5 percent on year in July, up from 4.4 percent in June.

US CPI for July (Wed 0830 EDT; Wed 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, CPI - M/M: 0.0% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 3.4%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 3.4% to 3.5%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.2% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 2.5%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 2.5% to 2.5%

CPI seen up a more routine 0.1 percent on month and 0.2 percent core in June with annual increases of 3.4 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively.

Thursday

Japan PPI for July (Thu 0750 JST; Wed 2350 GMT; Wed 1950 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.6%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.5% to 0.6%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 7.5%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 6.6% to 7.5%

Japans annual producer inflation, as measured by the Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI), is expected to accelerate in July to its fastest pace since February 2023. The CGPI is forecast to rise for a fifth consecutive month from a year earlier, driven by continued increases in oil, metals and other commodity prices.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept oil and commodity prices elevated while also boosting safe-haven demand for the dollar, leaving it about 7 percent stronger against the yen than a year earlier. The resulting depreciation of the Japanese currency has pushed up import costs in resource-poor Japan. These trends have intensified since the U.S. and Israel launched a joint military strike on Iran in late February.

In addition, businesses have continued to pass on higher labor costs to customers, adding to upward pressure on producer prices.

The CGPI is expected to rise 7.5 percent year on year in July the fastest pace since February 2023, when it increased 8.4 percent following a 7.1 percent gain in June. The largest contributors to the increase in June were non-ferrous metals, which rose 39.2 percent from a year earlier, petroleum and coal products (22.8 percent), and chemical products (14.4 percent).

On a month-on-month basis, producer prices are expected to rise 0.6 percent in July. Except for February, when the index was unchanged, the monthly CGPI has posted positive growth every month since September 2025. June's monthly increase was driven mainly by petroleum and coal products, including heavy fuel oil and kerosene, as well as utilities and plastic products. Declines in agricultural products, including rice and pork, partially offset those gains.

Norway Norges Bank Rate Decision (Thu 0800 CEST; Thu 0600 GMT; Thu 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 4.25%

Consensus Range, Level: 4.25% to 4.25%

The consensus sees no rate change from the Norges Bank this time.

UK GDP for Second Quarter (Thu 0700 BST; Thu 0600 GMT; Thu 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.4%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.2% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.1%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.1% to 1.6%

Growth expected slower at 0.4 percent on the quarter in Q2 versus 0.6 percent in Q1.

Eurozone Industrial Production for June (Thu 1100 CEST; Thu 0900 GMT; Thu 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.6% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -0.9%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -2.4% to -0.5%

Output flagging -- expected to recede by the same 0.2 percent in June as in May.

US Jobless Claims for Week of August 08 (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 205K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 202K to 205K

Claims are seen back up at 205K versus 199K a week ago.

US PPI-Final Demand for July (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, PPI-FD - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, PPI-FD - M/M: -0.1% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.1% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services - M/M: 0.1% to 0.3%

The consensus looks for PPI up 0.2 percent on the month in July and up 0.3 percent ex-food and energy.

Friday

India Wholesale Price Index for July (Fri 1200 IST; Fri 0630 GMT; Fri 0230 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 9.95%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 9.95% to 11.0%

The consensus sees WPI at a big 9.95 percent annual increase in July.

France CPI for July (Fri 0845 CEST; Fri 0645 GMT; Fri 0245 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.6%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.6% to 0.6%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.1%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.1% to 2.1%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - M/M: 0.6%

Consensus Range, HICP - M/M: 0.6% to 0.6%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 2.4%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 2.4% to 2.4%

No revision expected in the final from the flash with CPI up 0.6 percent on month and up 2.1 percent on year.

Eurozone GDP Flash for Second Quarter (Fri 1100 CEST; Fri 0900 GMT; Fri 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.4%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.4% to 0.44%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.0% to 1.0%

The consensus looks for GDP up 0.4 percent on quarter and 1.0 percent on the year.

US Retail Sales for July (Fri 0830 EDT; Fri 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Retail Sales - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Retail Sales - M/M: -0.3% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Vehicles - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, Ex-Vehicles - M/M: -0.2% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M: 0.4%

Consensus Range, Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M: 0.2% to 0.5%

A modest 0.1 percent increase is the call for July and 0.2 percent ex-autos.

Canada Manufacturing Sales for June (Fri 0830 EDT; Fri 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.1% to 0.0%

Forecasters see sales down 0.1 percent on the month, in line with the Stats Canada preliminary estimate.

US Business Inventories for June (Fri 1000 EDT; Fri 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.2% to 0.2%

Inventories expected up a routine 0.2 percent.

US Consumer Sentiment for August Prelim. (Fri 1000 EDT; Fri 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 54.1

Consensus Range, Index: 52.5 to 57.0

Sentiment expected to recede slightly to 54.1 in the early August report from 55.2 in the July final, up from a gloomy 49.5 in June.