The Week Ahead: Highlights

US Preview

Finally, Warsh Nomination Hearings Are Set

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist

On Tuesday, April 21 at 10:00 am ET, the Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination to be a governor of the Federal Reserve and its next chair. Given that Warsh has a stint on the board of governors on his resume and is well-liked in conservative political circles, he would ordinarily get through the nomination process without undue difficulty on a personal level.

However, the hearing will be an opportunity to wage some proxy battles regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, the meritless accusations of mismanagement of Fed property renovations, and the economic policies coming out of the White House. This will be especially true since Jerome Powell has not been scheduled to deliver the semiannual monetary policy testimony before either the Senate Banking Committee or the House Financial Services Committee. Democrats and Republicans alike will want to be on the record in bringing up their respective political messaging.

Once the hearing is over, the Senate committee will take a few days and make its recommendation to the full Senate. Or not. The big problem remains that Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina has pledged to block the nomination from moving out of committee until the investigation into the Fed's handling of the renovation issue has been resolved, and President Trump has doubled down lately on his view that the investigation should continue. Plus there is Trump's new threat to fire Powell if he does not step aside when his term as chair ends.

It is still possible that the process will be complete by mid-May when Powell's four-year term as chair is over, but the matter of the renovations is a big problem. Should Warsh not be confirmed and sworn in, by law, Powell will be chair pro tem until it is. Powell has indicated that he will remain on the board until the matter related to the renovations is fully resolved. His term as a governor runs through January 31, 2028. In the meantime, Stephan Miran remains on the board until Warsh is confirmed to the seat he currently holds.

The communications blackout period around the upcoming April 28-29 FOMC meeting goes into effect at midnight on Saturday, April 21 and runs through on Thursday, April 30. No Fed official would comment about a nominee to the board even if that was not the case.

Asia-Pacific Preview

Inflation Reports in Focus

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

Quarterly New Zealand inflation data will be the highlight of a light Asia-Pacific data calendar. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left policy rates on hold at its meeting earlier in this month, citing uncertainty about the impact of the Iran conflict. The inflation data mainly covers the period before the conflict began, but officials have advised that they expect inflation pressures will rise in the near-term. New Zealand will also report monthly trade data.

Singapore and Hong Kong will publish inflation data while Taiwanese industrial production data will likely show continued strength. The flash PMI survey for India will provide an early indication of conditions in April.

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

China Loan Prime Rate for April (Mon 0915 CST; Sun 0115 GMT; Sun 2115 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, 1-Year Rate - Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, 1-Year Rate - Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, 1-Year Rate - Level: 3.00%

Consensus Range, 1-Year Rate - Level: 3.00% to 3.00%

Consensus Forecast, 5-Year Rate - Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, 5-Year Rate - Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, 5-Year Rate - Level: 3.50%

Consensus Range, 5-Year Rate - Level: 3.50% to 3.50%

The PBOC is expected to leave rates unchanged as authorities continue looking to fiscal and other non-monetary policy measures to boost the economy.

Germany PPI for March (Mon 0800 CEST; Mon 0600 GMT; Mon 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 1.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.8% to 1.4%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -1.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -1.8% to -1.2%

The consensus looks for a big 1.2 percent rebound on the month in March and a decline of 1.4 percent on year. That compares with decreases of 0.5 percent on the month and a nasty 3.3 percent on year in February.

Canada CPI for March (Mon 0830 EDT; Mon 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 1.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: 1.0% to 1.1%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.5%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.5% to 2.8%

Canada CPI ex-food & energy

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.3%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.1% to 2.4%

The shock evident in gasoline prices, which rose a whopping 21 percent in March from February, is expected to show up in CPI with a 1.0 percent monthly rise and a 2.5 percent increase on year in March. That comes after a more routine 0.5 percent and 1.8 percent in February. Core CPI is expected up 2.3 percent on year, not much better than the total, up from 2.0 percent in February.

Tuesday

New Zealand for CPI for First Quarter (Tue 1045 NZST; Mon 2245 GMT; Mon 1845 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.7%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.6% to 0.8%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.9%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.8% to 3.0%

CPI expected up 0.7 percent on quarter and 2.9 percent on year for Q1. That compares with 0.6 percent and 3.1 percent in Q4.

UK Labour Market Report for April (Tue 0700 GMT; Tue 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, ILO Unemployment Rate: 5.2%

Consensus Range, ILO Unemployment Rate: 5.1% to 5.3%

The jobless rate is expected flat at 5.2 percent.

Germany ZEW Survey for April (Tue 1100 CEST; Tue 0900 GMT; Tue 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Current Conditions: -72

Consensus Range, Current Conditions: -74 to -66

Consensus Forecast, Economic Sentiment: -0.8

Consensus Range, Economic Sentiment: -11.3 to 5.0

A distinct decline expected with the energy price shock. The consensus sees current conditions down to minus 72 and sentiment at minus 0.8 in April from minus 62.9 and minus 0.5, respectively, in March.

US Retail Sales for March (Tue 0830 EDT; Tue 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Retail Sales - M/M: 1.4%

Consensus Range, Retail Sales - M/M: 0.4% to 2.2%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Vehicles - M/M: 1.3%

Consensus Range, Ex-Vehicles - M/M: 0.0% to 2.0%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M: 0.2% to 0.6%

Recall these are not inflation-adjusted numbers so rising gas prices translate into higher sales, expected up 1.4 percent on the month, with support from a rebound in auto sales. Ex-vehicles and gas, the consensus sees a modest rise of 0.2 percent.

US Business Inventories for February (Tue 1000 EDT; Tue 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.1% to 0.4%

A moderate 0.2 percent increase for February is expected after a 0.1 percent decrease in January.

US Pending Home Sales Index for March (Tue 1000 EDT; Tue 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.9%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.5% to 1.0%

The consensus sees sales up 0.9 percent in March, building on the 1.8 percent rise in February.

Wednesday

Japan Merchandise Trade for March (Wed 0850 JST; Tue 2350 GMT; Tue 1950 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: 1114.20 B

Consensus Range, Balance: 530.60 B to 1620.00 B

Consensus Forecast, Imports - Y/Y: 5.7%

Consensus Range, Imports - Y/Y: 3.0% to 10.1%

Consensus Forecast, Exports - Y/Y: 11.2%

Consensus Range, Exports - Y/Y: 8.9% to 14.2%

Japanese export values are expected to rise for a seventh straight month in March and expected to push the country's trade balance into surplus for a second consecutive month. Rising oil prices amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are seen restraining import volumes, although import values are still expected to increase for a second straight month.

Exports are projected to rise 11.2% on the year in March, accelerating from a revised 4.0% gain in February (initially 4.2%). Solid overseas demand for semiconductor-related electronic components and non-ferrous metals continued to support exports, but growth is seen moderating toward the end of March amid the impact of the U.S.-Iran war.

Imports are forecast to rise 5.7% on the year in March, slowing from a revised 10.3% increase in February (initially 10.2%). February imports were led by semiconductor-related components, non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous metal ores, partly reflecting irregular trade patterns linked to Lunar New Year holidays in parts of Asia.

Against this backdrop, Japan's customs-cleared trade balance is expected to post a surplus of about 1.11 trillion yen in March, a sharp increase from a revised 44.3 billion yen surplus in February.

UK CPI for March (Wed 0700 BST; Wed 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.6%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.6% to 0.8%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.3%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.2% to 3.5%

Rising energy prices expected to lift CPI by 0.6 percent on month and 3.3 percent on year in March.

Eurozone EC Consumer Confidence Flash for April (Wed 1600 CEST; Wed 1400 GMT; Wed 1000 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: -17.3

Consensus Range, Index: -17.9 to -16.8

Consumer confidence seen depressed at minus 17.3 in April.

Thursday

South Korea GDP for First Quarter (Thu 0800 KST; Wed 2300 GMT; Wed 1900 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.7%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.3% to 1.0%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.6%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.9% to 2.8%

The consensus see growth somewhat better at 0.7 percent on quarter and 2.6 percent on year in the first read for Q1 versus minus 0.2 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, in Q4.

Singapore CPI for March (Thu 1300 SGT; Thu 0500 GMT; Thu 0100 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.8%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.5% to 1.8%

CPI seen up at 1.8 percent on year in March versus 1.2 percent in February.

Eurozone PMI Composite Flash for April (Thu 0900 CEST; Thu 0700 GMT; Thu 0300 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 50.1

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 49.9 to 50.3

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 50.6

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 50.1 to 50

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 49.6

Consensus Range, Services Index: 49.5 to 49.9

Composite expected a bit lower at 50.1 in April from 50.7 in March final. Manufacturing seen at 50.6 and services at 49.6, both lower on the month.

Germany PMI Composite Flash for April (Thu 0930 CEST; Thu 0730 GMT; Thu 0330 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 51.3

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 51.0 to 52.5

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 50.4

Consensus Range, Services Index: 50.0 to 50.6

Slightly softer readings seen with manufacturing down to 51.3 in April from 52.2 in March and services at 50.4 versus 50.9.

UK PMI Composite Flash for April (Thu 0930 BST; Thu 0430 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 49.8

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 49.4 to 51.6

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 50.1

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 49.5 to 51.0

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 50.0

Consensus Range, Services Index: 50.0 to 51.4

The consensus looks for the composite at 49.8 versus 50.3 a month earlier. Manufacturing also seen lower at 50.1 and services at 50.0.

US Jobless Claims for Week 04/18 (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 210K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 205K to 220K

Claims expected back up to 210K toward the 4-week moving average of 209.75K from 207K last week.

US PMI Composite Flash for April (Thu 0945 EDT; Thu 1345 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 50.5

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 49.9 to 51.2

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 52.5

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 52.0 to 52.8

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 50.0

Consensus Range, Services Index: 49.6 to 50.9

Unlike their European counterparts, these PMIs are seen edging up in the April flash with the composite up at 50.5 from 50.3 in the March final.

Friday

Japan CPI for March (Fri 0830 JST; Thu 2330 GMT; Thu 1930 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 1.4%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 1.2% to 1.6%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Fresh Food - Y/Y: 1.6%

Consensus Range, Ex-Fresh Food - Y/Y: 1.5% to 1.9%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Fresh Food & Energy - Y/Y: 2.4%

Consensus Range, Ex-Fresh Food & Energy - Y/Y: 2.3% to 2.5%

Japan's nationwide consumer price index is expected to be little changed across all three major measures in March from the previous month. Gains in energy prices driven by tensions in the Middle East were partly offset by the government's introduction of new gasoline subsidies from mid-March, helping to cushion the impact of higher international oil prices.

CPI was also weighed down by a slowdown in food price inflation amid fading base effects. Reflecting the trend in Tokyo CPI data released on March 31, the nationwide core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is expected to rise 1.6 percent on the year in March, unchanged from a month earlier. This would mark a second straight reading below the Bank of Japan's 2.0 percent inflation target and the first consecutive sub-2% reading in four years, last seen in February and March 2022.

The two other key nationwide CPI measures are also expected to be little changed. Overall CPI is projected to rise 1.4 percent on the year in March after a 1.3 percent gain in February. Core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, is seen edging down to 2.4 percent from 2.5 percent the previous month.

UK Retail Sales for February (Fri 0700 BST; Fri 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.5% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.3%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 0.8% to 1.6%

Sales continue to erode with the consensus seeing a decline of 0.3 percent following a 0.4 percent decrease a month earlier. Sales on year seen up 1.3 percent after a 2.5 percent increase in January.

Germany Ifo Survey for April (Fri 1000 CEST; Fri 0800 GMT; Fri 0400 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Business Climate: 85.5

Consensus Range, Business Climate: 84.3 to 86.6

Consensus Forecast, Current Conditions: 85.9

Consensus Range, Current Conditions: 85.0 to 86.2

Consensus Forecast, Business Expectations: 85.5

Consensus Range, Business Expectations: 85.1 to 87.0

The consensus looks for a significant decline in business climate with the index down to 85.5 in April from 88.6 in March, mostly on Iran war effects.

Canada Retail Sales for February (Fri 0830 EDT; Fri 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.9%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.8% to 0.9%

Forecasters agree with the preliminary estimate from Statistics Canada anticipating a gain of 0.9 percent for February on top of the 1.1 percent increase for January.

US Consumer Sentiment for April, revised (Fri 1000 EDT; Fri 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 48.0

Consensus Range, Index: 47.6 to 49.8

The preliminary reading was shockingly low at 47.6 for April so forecasters see a little recovery to 48.0 in the final April report, still remarkably weak versus 53.3 in March and down about 9 percent from a year ago. Consumers remain upset about rising prices for gas and other essentials and more fearful about jobs with the energy shock from the Iran war.